Abstract: Represented by “The Eighteenth Brumaire of Louis Bonaparte”, Marx's theory of revolutionary history contains a historical theoretical logic based on political situation analysis. In the specific analysis of the 18481851 revolution, Marx starts with the political situation in a short period of time, refines it into a synchronic class social structure, and continuously interprets the political situation, as a representation, into the social structure of productive forces and production relations, the economic base and the superstructure and the dynamic and mediating role of class in it. Furthermore, from the analysis of the social structure and its contradictory movements, Marx expounds the longterm historical laws and trends. Although the political situation can fundamentally be attributed to the social structure and its contradictory movements, it cannot directly “reduce” to the latter, but rather presents a “relative independence” as shortterm being relative to synchronicity and longterm. Therefore, the unity of the microscopic shortterm event situation, the mesoscopic synchronic social structure and contradictions, and the macroscopic historical trend is a progressive synthesis, which supplements and develops the basic principles of historical materialism in the dimension of political situations. It presents a theoretical opportunity for the continuous deepening and development of historical materialism.

Key words: historical materialism, political situation, structure, trend

摘要：  以《路易·波拿巴的雾月十八日》为代表，马克思的革命历史论著蕴含着一种基于政治情境分析的历史理论逻辑。通过对1848—1851年革命的具体分析，马克思以短时段的政治情境入手，将其逐层提纯为共时性的阶级社会结构，把作为表象的政治情境不断综合为生产力与生产关系、经济基础与上层建筑的社会结构及其中的阶级的能动和中介作用，并进一步从社会结构及其矛盾运动分析指向了长时段历史规律与趋势的把握。政治情境虽然从根本上可以归结为社会结构及其矛盾运动，但不能直接“还原”为后者，而是呈现出一种短时段相对于共时性和长时段的“相对独立性”。因而，微观的短时段事件情境、中观的共时性社会结构及矛盾、宏观的历史性趋势的统一是一种递进式的综合，这种思想综合以政治情境化的维度补充和发展了唯物史观基本原理，呈现出唯物史观不断深化和发展的理论空间。

关键词: 唯物史观, 政治情境, 结构, 趋势