Abstract: The welfare risk of capitalism is changing from “new social risk” to “new welfare risk”. It includes the new social security risk caused by the refugee tide, the new social policy risk caused by the aggravation of inequality and populism, the new labor risk caused by the industrial structure change in the Internet era, and the new family policy risk promoted by work family imbalance. The root cause of the variation of welfare risk in capitalist countries is that the capitalist mode of production based on the grab of surplus value and the existence of private ownership can not overcome the contradiction between the marketization of production system and the non commercialization of distribution system, resulting in the welfare supply that can be realized by the capitalist government can not accommodate the welfare needs of the middle and lower classes. To this end, capitalist countries should strengthen the government's intervention in secondary distribution and implement a series of more active welfare policies. However, the capitalist mode of production has always been unable to root out the spiral variation and upgrading of welfare risks, as well as the resulting cyclical welfare crisis.   

Key words: welfare risk, production system, distribution system, welfare crisis

摘要： 当今资本主义的福利风险正在发生变异，从原有的“新社会风险”转变为“新福利风险”：包括难民潮催生的新社会保障风险、不平等加剧和民粹主义情绪引发的新社会政策风险、互联网时代产业结构变化导致的新劳动力风险和工作家庭不平衡促发的新家庭政策风险。资本主义国家福利风险变异的根源，是基于剩余价值攫取与私有制存续的资本主义生产方式无法克服生产系统市场化和分配系统非商品化之间的矛盾，导致资本主义政府所能够实现的福利供给愈加无法容纳日益窘迫的中下阶层对福利的需求。对此，资本主义国家通过加大政府二次分配干预力度、实施一系列更为积极的福利政策加以应对，但资本主义的生产方式决定了它始终无法根绝福利风险的螺旋式变异与升级，以及由此带来的周期性福利危机。

关键词: 福利风险, 生产系统, 分配系统, 福利危机