Abstract: The blossom of artificial intelligence contributes to the research, development and deployment of intelligent autonomous weapons, which leads a subversive change to modern warfare. In the conventional level of warfare, the types of combat will be varied with military forces, and new ways of global counterterrorism are keeping arising, while the gray zone warfare that accompany with them will be strengthened. With regards to the nuclear war, the leading nations of the technique tend to utilize or threaten to use strategic nuclear weapons to gain overall advantages, while the prospect of failure in intelligent warfare would stimulate nations to adopt tactical nuclear weapons to seek local initiative. Then, it will strengthen the nuclear weapon races among nations, and nuclear crisis control will confront with greater risks. New risks and unpredictable factors will be also existed in the daily management of nuclear weapons. Intelligent autonomous weapons are the new driving force for international power struggle. The security dilemma of the international community will intensify, and a new round of intelligent arms race will be inevitable. The world will be on the verge of turning into a new round of war, with the power gap among the South and North countries expanding, and the determination of the Western countries to enlarge freedom order and transfer domestic crisis stimulated. The peaceful rise of China, at the same time, will face a lot of uncertain security challenges, while the construction of a community of a shared future for mankind will still have a long way to go.

Key words: intelligent autonomous weapon, conventional war, nuclear war, international power struggle

摘要： 人工智能的发展推动着智能武器的研发与部署，现代战争也因此发生颠覆性变化。在常规战争领域，具体军种的作战方式会有重大变革，全球反恐战争将出现新样式，与之相配套的灰色区域战强化。在核战争领域，智能领先的国家会更加喜欢使用或者威胁使用战略核武器获得整体优势，而在智能战争中失败的前景则会刺激国家利用战术核武器谋求局部主动；它会强化国家之间的核军备竞赛，核危机管控也面临更大风险；它还会给核武器日常管理带来新的风险与不确定因素。智能武器在战争中的这些作用会成为国际权力斗争的新动力。国际社会的安全困境因而加剧，新一轮智能军备竞赛不可避免；南北国家之间的权力鸿沟加大，西方扩张自由主义秩序和转移国内危机的决心会受到进一步刺激，世界新的战乱风险剧增；中国的和平崛起同样面临更多不确定的安全考验，人类命运共同体建设更加任重而道远。

关键词: 智能武器, 常规战争, 核战争, 国际权力斗争