Abstract: The impact of the Covid19 pandemic is significantly different from the crisis in history. It is not only a crisis caused by a global pandemic, but also a major uncertainty in the prospects of globalization. “Deglobalization” essentially refers to the great adjustment of globalization led by the United States, but it does not mean the end of globalization. The development level of globalization in history also has ups and downs. We cannot infer the prospect of globalization from the current level of hyperglobalization. The power transition between China and the United States, especially the group rise of developing countries, will change the political dynamics of globalization. As developing countries attach more importance to regional economy, the traditional globalization at the global level will become more focused on regional cooperation. The Covid19 pandemic also shows that the global value chain will pay more attention to security factors, which will also shorten and slow down the level of globalization at the global level. In the post epidemic era, China has put forward the new development strategy of establishing international and domestic dual circulation, which means the exportoriented strategy is coming to an end. The changes of Chinas external economic environment have also prompted Chinese scholars to rethink the relationship between security and international political economy.

Key words: Covid19, pandemic depression, global value chains, new development pattern, deglobalization, slowbalization

摘要： 新冠疫情冲击与历史上的危机有重大区别。它既是一场全球流行病造成的危机，同时也导致全球化的重大不确定性。“去全球化”实质上主要是指美国主导的全球化的大调整，然而并不意味着全球化的终结。历史上的全球化发展水平也有起伏，我们不能以目前超级全球化的水平来推断全球化发展前景。运行良好的全球化需要政治动力，而中美权力转移，特别是发展中国家群体性崛起将改变全球化的政治动力。由于发展中国家更加重视地区经济，因而传统上在全球层面展开的全球化将变得更加侧重于区域合作为特色的全球化。新冠疫情也表明，全球价值链将更加重视安全因素，这也会缩短和减缓全球层面的全球化水平。疫情加剧了全球产业链的调整，延续了中美贸易摩擦催生的大趋势，即国际经济关系的进一步地区化。中国在步入后疫情时代之际，提出建立国内大循环和国际国内双循环新发展格局，这意味着东亚地区运行多年的出口导向战略走向终结。中国外部经济环境的变化，也促使中国学术界重新思考安全与国际政治经济的关联。

关键词: 新冠疫情, 疫情大萧条, 全球价值链, 新发展格局, 去全球化, 慢全球化