Abstract: The author maintains that the crucial point in understanding social development lies in the institution and change of the institution.The political development that leads to changes in power structure is affected by economic and social situations of the country.On the other hand,the innovation of the institution will also influence the historical course of a country. The choice of the period of strategic opportunity for political development is related to the consume of supportive factors of social development.A farseeing political enterpriser plays a decisive role in assessing the profits and risks of institutional innovation and making a rational choice accordingly.Theoretically speaking,methodology of the new institutionalism and modern political theories can offer insights for better understanding of strategic issues of political development.

Key words: institution, change of institution, period of strategic opportunity, political development

摘要： 本文认为,制度和制度变迁是理解社会发展的关键所在;改变国家权力结构的政治发展过程,不仅依赖于经济和社会条件的改变,而且也通过政治制度创新影响着社会历史进程;政治发展的战略机遇期选择与社会发展的支持性因素耗费程度有关;在政治发展的战略机遇期,有远见的政治企业家对制度创新收益和风险的评估以及理性选择至关重要。就理论而言,运用新制度主义的方法,结合当代政治学理论可以帮助我们更好地理解政治发展战略问题。

关键词: 制度, 制度变迁, 战略机遇期, 政治发展