关键词: 威慑理论, 网络威慑, 权力竞争, 跨域威慑, 安全冲击

Abstract: Cyber deterrence is an important tool for maintaining network security. While the current theoretical studie shave argued that cyber deterrence is ineffective, the US government insists on emphasizing the importance of cyber deterrence and constantly improving its cyber deterrence capabilities, which must have important strategic considerations. This paper examines the evolution process of US cyber deterrence policy and divides it into four evolutionary stages according to the changes in its cyber security strategic objectives. By analyzing the characteristics of cyber deterrence policy at different stages, this paper finds that with the continuous changes in security strategic objectives, the USs cyber deterrence strategy has evolved from a purely passive defense strategy to a proactive offensive expansion one; it has completely broken through the traditional deterrence theoretical framework in the three main dimensions of coverage area, supporting means and deterrence force. By echoing offensive cyber security strategies such as “continuous engagement” and “forward defense”, the USs cyber deterrence has become an important means to maintain cyber hegemony and participate in the great power competition in cyberspace. This transformation has not achieved the goal of cyber security, but has seriously undermined the stability of cyberspace with continuous spillovers that lead to“crossdomain” security risks, and adversely affected global strategic stability.

Key words: deterrence theory, network deterrence, power competition, crossdomain deterrence, security impact