国际合作风险分析与预防机制构建——基于信号理论视角

教学与研究 ›› 2021, Vol. 55 ›› Issue (1): 90-100.

国际合作风险分析与预防机制构建——基于信号理论视角

1 吉林大学公共外交学院； 2 吉林大学行政学院。

出版日期:2021-01-16 发布日期:2021-01-11
作者简介:肖晞，吉林大学公共外交学院院长、国家发展与安全研究院院长、教授；宋国新，吉林大学行政学院博士研究生（吉林长春 130012）。
基金资助:
本文系教育部哲学社会科学重大课题攻关项目“国家安全战略研究”（项目号：18JZD058）和“吉林大学2020年研究生创新研究计划”项目“‘一带一路’中国海外利益保护研究”（项目号：101832020CX036）的阶段性成果。

Risk Analysis and Prevention Mechanism Construction of International Cooperation——Based on Signaling Theory Perspective

1. School of Public Diplomacy, Jilin University，Changchun,Jilin 130012,China; 2. School of Administration, Jilin University, Changchun, Jilin 130012, China

Online:2021-01-16 Published:2021-01-11

摘要/Abstract

摘要： 以信号理论为视角，国际合作各方存在信息不对称问题，致使逆向选择发生，风险增加。研究发现，信号表达和信号甄别是影响国际合作风险的两个核心变量，二者的共振决定国际合作风险的程度。本文尝试建立信号表达、信号甄别与国际合作风险的分析框架，分析信号表达、信号甄别及二者共振与国际合作风险程度间的内在关系。二者共振产生三类结果：“真实，强”组合的国际合作风险小；“真实，弱”“欺骗，强”组合的国际合作风险相对适中；“欺骗，弱”组合的国际合作风险高。基于此，通过三个案例分析国际合作前中后的风险生成机理。应通过提高信号表达的真实性，扩大信号表达范围，实现信号的分离均衡，构建更加均衡的信号表达机制；通过提升信号甄别能力和意愿，扩大甄别范围和提高甄别频率，实现信号的分离均衡，构建更加均衡的信号甄别机制；加强二者的正向均衡互动，构建国际合作风险的预防机制，提高国际合作质量。

关键词: 信号表达, 信号甄别, 国际合作风险, 预防机制

Abstract: From the perspective of signaling theory, there are information asymmetry problems in all parties to international cooperation, resulting in adverse selection, increasing risks. The study found that signal expression and signal discrimination are two core variables that affect the risk of international cooperation, and the resonance of the two determines the degree of risk of international cooperation. The article attempts to establish an analytical framework for signal expression, signal discrimination and international cooperation risk, and analyzes the intrinsic relationship among signal expression, signal discrimination and the degree of international cooperation risks. The resonance of the two produces three types of results: the risk of international cooperation in the “real, strong” combination is small; the risk of international cooperation in the “real, weak” and “deception, strong” combination is relatively moderate; the risk of international cooperation in the “deception, weak” combination is high. Based on this, through three casesanalyzing the mechanism of risk generation before, in, and after international cooperation.By improving the authenticity of the expression signal, expanding the signal expression range, achieving signal separation and equalization, and constructing a more balanced signal expression mechanism; by increasing the signal discrimination ability and willingness, expanding the screening range and increasing the frequency of screening， achieving signal separation and equalization, and building a more balanced signal screening mechanism. Strengthening the positive and balanced interaction between the two, building a risk prevention mechanism for international cooperation, and improving the quality of international cooperation.

Key words: signal expression, signal screening, international cooperation risk, prevention mechanism

肖晞, 宋国新. 国际合作风险分析与预防机制构建——基于信号理论视角[J]. 教学与研究, 2021, 55(1): 90-100.

Xiao Xi, Song Guoxin. Risk Analysis and Prevention Mechanism Construction of International Cooperation——Based on Signaling Theory Perspective[J]. Teaching and Research, 2021, 55(1): 90-100.