主管:教育部
主办:中国人民大学
ISSN 0257-2826  CN 11-1454/G4

《教学与研究》 ›› 2015, Vol. 49 ›› Issue (2): 98-105.DOI:

• 研究述评 • 上一篇    下一篇

“中国的明斯基时刻”会到来吗?
——一个文献评述的视角

张红梅,李黎力   

  1. 中国人民大学 经济学院,北京 100872
  • 出版日期:2015-02-16 发布日期:2015-02-13
  • 作者简介:张红梅,中国人民大学经济学院博士研究生,主要研究方向为区域金融; 李黎力,中国人民大学经济学院博士研究生,主要研究方向为宏观金融。
  • 基金资助:

    本文系国家社会科学基金项目“马克思主义、后凯恩斯学派和新熊彼特学派的经济危机理论比较及应用研究”(项目号:14BJL008)的阶段性成果,同时受到国务院发展研究中心“发展研究奖学金”和教育部“博士研究生学术新人奖”资助。

Will the Chinese Minsky Moment Come?
——A Literature Review

ZHANG  Hong-Mei,LI  Li-Li   

  1. School of Economics,Renmin University of China, Beijing 100872
  • Online:2015-02-16 Published:2015-02-13

摘要: “大衰退”之后,“中国的明斯基时刻”是否会降临成为争论的热点。争论主要围绕中国现今是否已经处于投机性融资乃至庞氏融资阶段,以及中国政府是否有能力防止明斯基时刻爆发这两个方面。然而在这两个方面,要么由于双方缺乏确凿的证据,要么因为双方均存在合理性,因而无法对中国的明斯基时刻是否到来做出预判。但事实上,按照明斯基的逻辑,试图预测明斯基时刻何时到来不仅意义不大,而且不太可能;相反,重要的是理解和关注背后导致明斯基时刻降临的“明斯基动态”。中国应该从明斯基动态着眼,继续不断着力于减缓乃至改善近年来这种动态加剧的局面,并积极关注各种局部突发性风险,及时有效地遏制其风险扩大。

关键词: 明斯基时刻 , 中国的明斯基时刻 , 明斯基动态

Abstract: Following the Great Recession, whether “Chinese Minsky Moment” will come has become a hot controversial topic. The argument is mainly around whether China today is already in speculative financing or even the Ponzi financing stage, and whether the Chinese government has the ability to prevent the outbreak of Minsky moment. Unfortunately, owing to the lack of conclusive evidence and sufficient arguments, it is hard to judge if Minsky moment will come to China in terms of these two respects. But according to Minskys vision, trying to predict when the Minsky moment will arrive is neither necessary nor likely. Instead, it is important to understand and concern the “Minsky dynamics” which leads to the outbreak of Minsky moments. From this perspective, China should constantly focus on the mitigation and improvement of the exacerbating dynamics in recent years,  and actively concerns on all kinds of local emergency risks in order to timely and effectively contain the spread of them.

Key words: Minsky moment , Chinese Minsky moment; , Minsky dynamics