主管:教育部
主办:中国人民大学
ISSN 0257-2826  CN 11-1454/G4

《教学与研究》 ›› 2013, Vol. 47 ›› Issue (3): 80-89.DOI:

• 当代中国与世界 • 上一篇    下一篇

冷战后中国周边核态势的两种趋向及其原因解析

程晓勇   

  1. 复旦大学 国际关系与公共事务学院
  • 出版日期:2013-03-15 发布日期:2013-03-20
  • 作者简介:程晓勇,复旦大学政治学博士后,主要从事国际与地区安全、军控与防扩散研究。
  • 基金资助:

    本文系国家社会科学基金2011年度重大招标项目“当代国际核政治与我国国家安全研究”(项目号:11&ZD181)的阶段性成果,同时本文得到了中国博士后科学基金的资助(资助编号:2012M520796)。

On China's Peripheral Nuclear Situation after the Cold War: Two Opposing Trends and Their Origins

CHENG  Xiao-Yong   

  1. School of International Relations and Public Affairs, Fudan University, Shanghai 200433, China
  • Online:2013-03-15 Published:2013-03-20

摘要: 冷战后,中国周边核态势趋于复杂化,具体表现为中国周边的核扩散形势呈现为两个相反的方向。一方面,在东北亚地区,朝鲜的核扩散行为引发了严重的核危机,使东北亚地区的安全局势陷入持续的紧张状态;在南亚地区,印度和巴基斯坦相继突破核门槛成为核国家;另一方面,中国周边多个地区与国家加快了去核化与无核化的步伐,东南亚、蒙古和中亚地区相继宣布建立无核区,稳定了这些地区的安全形势,并巩固了国际核不扩散体系。冷战后中国周边呈现出这两种不同的核态势,是多种因素相互作用的结果。就具体地区而言,其核态势走向是国际安全环境、地区安全环境以及地区内关键国家国内政治因素相互影响的结果。

关键词: 中国周边 , 核态势 , 核扩散 , 无核区

Abstract: After the cold war, China's peripheral nuclear situation has become complex, with nuclear proliferation in the region around China pursuing two opposite directions. On the one hand, in the Northeast Asian region, North Korea's nuclear provocations have triggered a serious nuclear crisis; and in the South Asian region, India and Pakistan have crossed the nuclear threshold to become nuclear nations. On the other hand, many other countries and areas around China have accelerated their effort at denuclearization or non-nuclearization, such as Southeast Asia, Mongolia and Central Asia, have announced the establishment of a nuclear-free-zone, which has helped to stabilize the security situation in this region and consolidate the international nuclear nonproliferation mechanism. The two different nuclear trends, in certain areas around China in this postcold war era, are the result of the interaction and mutual influence of various factors, which include international security environment, regional security environment, and domestic politics in certain key countries.

Key words: the region around China , the nuclear situation , nuclear proliferation , the nuclear-free zone