Abstract: This paper provides a systematic analysis of the theory of realism represented by Robert Gilpin on the development dynamics and transformation logic of the international system, and compares it with Marxist international relations theory. This paper argues that both realism and Marxism are theories that emphasize the primacy of substance and hold many similar views on the development dynamics and transformation logic of the international system. Both theories emphasize that economic growth and military innovation caused by technological revolutions are the fundamental driving forces for the transformation of the international system. Furthermore, both theories believe that the transformation logic of the international system is the incompatibility between the economic base and the superstructure, and that changes in the international balance of power will eventually lead to struggles around and changes in the international order. However, compared with realism, Marxist international relations theory has a broader perspective. The neglect of the nature of the state and the lack of criticism of the inequality of the international system are the shortcomings of realist international relations theory, which also leads to their differences in terms of the direction and possibility of change in the international system. Marxist theory can provide a powerful explanation for the profound changes that are taking place at all levels of the international system, especially on why China proposes to build a new type of international relations and a community with a shared future for mankind.

Key words: international system, development dynamics, transformation logic, realism, Marxism

摘要： 本文对罗伯特·吉尔平所代表的现实主义关于国际体系的发展动力和变革逻辑的理论进行了系统的分析，并将其与马克思主义国际关系理论进行了比较。本文认为，现实主义和马克思主义都是强调物质第一性的理论，对国际体系的发展动力和变革逻辑持有许多相似的观点。两种理论都强调技术革命所导致的经济增长和军事革新是推动国际体系变革的根本动力，同时，两者都认为国际体系的变革逻辑是经济基础同上层建筑的不适应，国际力量对比的变动最终会导致围绕国际秩序的斗争和国际秩序的变革。但是，相比现实主义，马克思主义国际关系理论的视野更为广阔，对国家性质的忽视、对国际体系不平等缺乏批判是现实主义国际关系理论缺失的地方，这也导致它们在国际体系变革的方向和可能性等方面存在差异。马克思主义理论可以有力解释当前国际体系各层次正在发生的深刻变革，尤其是中国为何提出构建新型国际关系和人类命运共同体。

关键词: 国际体系, 发展动力, 变革逻辑, 现实主义, 马克思主义