Abstract: The decline of political parties is a significant phenomenon in party politics in the West in recent years. The rise of competitive organizations has become an external force to be reckoned with that influences the development of political parties. The substitution of competitive organizations for political parties in functions, values and expectations to some extent is accelerating the decline of the latter in a compensatory, penetrative and dispersive way. This means increasing pressures for the selfreform of political parties, and the gradual disappearance of the “time window”. The political scene of Western countries will be characterized by differentiation, polarization and fragmentation, adding uncertainties to global politics. Such a situation is attributable not only to the postmodern transformation of the West, but more to the worsening failure of political institutions and the crisis of democracy.

Key words: decline of political parties, competitive organization, political influence, functional substitution, institutional failure

摘要： 政党衰落是近年来西方国家政党政治中的显著现象，竞争性组织的崛起成为影响政党发展不可忽视的外在力量。竞争性组织在某种程度上对政党的功能替代、价值替代和预期替代，正在代偿性、渗透式、弥散化地加速政党衰落的进程。这意味着政党自我变革的压力持续加大，“时间窗口”逐渐消失，西方国家政治图景将出现分化、极化、碎片化的特点，同时，对全球政治带来更多变数和不确定性。这种局面的出现，既源于西方社会的后现代转型，更归因于西方国家日益严重的政治制度失灵和民主政治危机。

关键词: 政党衰落, 竞争性组织, 政治影响, 功能替代, 制度失灵