Abstract: The “transition paradigm”, which originated from the “third wave” of democratization, dominates the academic and practical circles thinking on political development. However, in theory, scholars led by Carothers have reflected on it, and believe that several assumptions of it are untenable. Empirically the emergence of authoritarian substitution, authoritarian resilience, democratic recession and democratic deconsolidation also deconstructed the transition paradigm. All in all, the transition paradigm cannot be established from the perspective of ontology, epistemology and methodology. On the contrary, political development is a process with multiple possibilities, which does not necessarily lead to a liberal democracy through a linear path.

Key words: transition paradigm, deconstruction, democratization, political development, multiple possibilities

摘要： 源自 “第三波”民主化的“转型范式”主导了学界与实务界对于政治发展的思考。然而在理论上，以卡罗瑟斯为先导的学者们对其进行了反思，认为其内含的几个假设都是不成立的，存在着“线性转型观”以及“选举迷信”等错误；而在经验上，威权替代、威权韧性、民主衰退与民主解固等现象的出现也进一步解构了转型范式。总而言之，不论是从本体论还是认识论与方法论的角度来看，转型范式都是无法成立的。相反，政治发展是一个具有多重可能性的过程。其不仅在过程上可能是曲折的，不存在单一的线性路径，而且在目标上也不必然转向西式自由民主政体。

关键词: 转型范式, 解构, 民主化, 政治发展, 多重可能性