Abstract: 2017 marks the 50th anniversary of the founding of ASEAN, and the 20th anniversary of the establishment of East Asia Cooperation mechanism which began in 1997. During this period, ASEAN established a series of cooperative mechanism towards building a nested superimposed“ASEAN Plus” structure, and gradually solidified its leading position in East Asia Cooperation, resembling a “small Cart” situation. But ASEANs leadership in East Asia Cooperation is not a stable one, facing constant internal and external influence, while having to resist against volatile environmental changes. There are three main conclusions in this paper: First, by examining the three changes in ASEANs leadership in East Asian cooperation, it is believed that ASEAN could use the “ASEAN Plus” to supplement its fragile leadership. Second, using the four dimensions of “Initiative, Attracting, Controllability and Execution” to evaluate the dynamic changes of ASEANs leading role. Third, the future course of ASEANs leadership will witness fluctuation. ASEAN needs to overcome numerous obstacles, to dynamically maintain its leadership role in promoting East Asian cooperation.

Key words: ASEAN , East Asia cooperation , leadership , fluctuation

摘要： 2017年是东盟创立50周年，以及东盟在1997年亚洲金融危机后创立东亚合作机制20周年。期间，东盟通过创建一系列合作机制形成了嵌套叠加的“东盟加”结构，逐步确立了其在东亚合作中的主导地位，获得一定的主导权，形成“小马拉大车”的局面。但东盟对东亚合作的主导权并不稳固，呈现不断遭遇冲击与自觉维护的波动性变化。本文有三个阶段性的评估结论：一是通过考察东盟主导权的三次波动变化，认为东盟利用“东盟加”结构，动态维护其不断遭遇冲击的主导权；二是可以通过主动性、吸引力、可控性和执行力这四个维度，来评估东盟对东亚合作主导权程度的动态变化；三是东盟主导权未来仍会呈现波动变化，东盟需要不断突破困境，才能动态维护主导权，推进东亚合作进程。

关键词: 东盟 , 东亚合作 , 主导权 , 波动