Abstract: In the framework of “production, distribution and consumption”, this paper tries to grasp the basic logic of the formation of production overcapacity. We found that, for the low income class, the lowend product overcapacity is because of the lack of effective demand. For highincome groups, the lowend product overcapacity is caused by the dislocation of demand. The crux of the problem of structural production overcapacity lies in the lack of the low demand of lowend products and the insufficient supply capacity of highend products. Generally speaking, the current production overcapacity is still in the range of relative excess. It is caused by the sharp decline in domestic and foreign demand, as well as by the constraints of domestic demand of effective consumption, which is difficult to enhance.

Key words: insufficient effective demand , insufficient supply capacity , relative surplus

摘要： 本文引入收入分配这一因素，并在“生产—分配—消费”框架中把握产能过剩形成的基本逻辑。我们发现，对于低收入阶层，低端产品过剩的背后是有效需求不足；对于高收入阶层，低端产品过剩的背后是供需层次错位。结构性产能过剩的症结在于低端产品的有效需求不足和高端产品供给能力不足。总体来看，当前产能过剩仍属相对过剩，它由国内外需求急剧萎缩引发，并且受国内有效消费需求难以提升的制约。

关键词: 有效需求不足 , 供给能力不足 , 相对过剩