Abstract: Existing theoretical attempts to explain the growth of latedeveloping countries have generally evolved from explanations based on factor endowments and institutional environments to those on national capabilities and political incentives. This progression demonstrates an overall shift of research from structural determinism to political dynamism, specifically manifesting in the following three aspects: (1) transitioning from simple conceptual descriptions of phenomena to attributions grounded in structural factor endowments; (2) advancing beyond singular economic factors towards incorporating noneconomic elements such as institutional factors, policy choices and implementation, and nationspecific attributes; and (3) extending analytical focus from structural endowments to state dynamic elements and ultimately to political incentives for growth. Within this framework, incentive dynamism around political patronage and rent distribution have emerged as crucial perspectives for reexamining latedevelopment in the coming decade. Future scholarship should further extend and refine the political explanatory framework for latedevelopment, theoretically avoiding simple conceptualization and structural determinism while fully exploring political incentives and dynamic mechanisms behind changes in economic growth rates as potential breakthrough for theoretical innovation and paradigm shift. In practice, it should deepen the understanding of power relations within Global South nations and facilitate the implementation of the Global Development Initiative.

Key words: late-developing countries, noneconomic endowments, new institutional economics, developmental states, growth incentives

摘要： 理解后发国家增长的既有理论尝试大致经历了从要素禀赋、制度环境到国家能力和政治激励的解释递进，总体上呈现出从结构决定到激励能动的演进脉络。具体表现为：（1）从对现象的简单概念描述到结构性要素禀赋的归因；（2）从对单一经济要素的归因到包含制度性因素、政策选择与执行和国家相关属性等非经济因素的尝试；（3）从各类结构性要素禀赋到国家能动性要素再到增长的政治激励的归因路径。在此基础上，基于政治庇护和租金分配的激励动力学已然成为下一个十年重新审视后发增长的重要视角。未来学界应当进一步延续和完善后发增长的能动解释框架，在理论上避免概念化描述和结构决定论，充分挖掘经济增速变化背后的政治激励和动力机制这一潜在的理论增长点和范式突破口；在实践上深化对全球南方国家内部的权力关系认知，推进全球发展倡议落实。

关键词: 后发国家, 非经济禀赋, 新制度经济学, 发展型国家, 增长激励