Abstract: Contingency evolves from daily discourse to philosophical discourse, and later evolves into an important category in the conception of history. The turning point of its development lies in the birth of Marxism. On the basis of a scientific understanding of the nature of human beings and their practical activities, Marx provides a scientific paradigm and path for correctly understanding the role of contingency in historical development, and his idea of contingency also presents itself as a process of gradual maturity of development. The Eighteenth Brumaire of Louis Bonaparte is a classic work of Marx‘s idea on contingency, which, based on the dialectical unity of contingency and inevitability, systematically discusses the impact of contingency on historical development in three aspects: ideological factors, political factors and personal factors, thereby enriching and improving the basic principles of historical materialism. Revisiting Marxs idea of examining contingency from the dialectical unity of inevitability and contingency is conducive to a correct understanding of the concept of contingency in grasping the general trend of history and to the promotion of social development and progress.

Key words: contingency, inevitability, The Eighteenth Brumaire of Louis Bonaparte, historical materialism

摘要： 偶然性从起初的日常话语到成为哲学话语，后来进一步演变成历史观中的重要范畴，其发展转折在于马克思主义的诞生。在科学理解人的本质及其实践活动的基础上，马克思为正确认识偶然性在历史发展中的作用提供了一种科学范式和正确路径，其偶然性思想也呈现为逐步成熟的发展过程。《路易·波拿巴的雾月十八日》是马克思偶然性思想的经典之作，文章基于偶然性与必然性的辩证统一，从思想因素、政治因素和个人因素三个方面系统论述了偶然性对历史发展的重大影响，丰富和完善了唯物史观的基本原理。重思马克思从必然性与偶然性辩证统一关系中考察偶然性的思想，有助于在把握历史大势中正确理解偶然性，推动社会发展进步。

关键词: 偶然性, 必然性, 《路易·波拿巴的雾月十八日》, 唯物史观