Abstract: Compared with the “power model” of offensive realism, which emphasizes “national hard power”, the “intention model” of defensive realism argues that the decision making of a great power is not only affected by the countrys hard power, but also by nonmaterial factors, namely, the judgment of the strategic intentions of other countries, which plays an important role in explaining the decisionmaking mechanism of the great power. It is the comparison of national hard power and the identification of the othersstrategic intentions that jointly determine a countrys foreign policy. From the “AsiaPacific Rebalancing” during the Obama presidency to the “IndoPacific Strategy” of the Biden administration, the “intention model” explains the continuity and evolution of the US AsiaPacific policy. Although the evolution of this policy is subject to the transformation of the power shift between China and the US, the USs identification and judgment of Chinas strategic intentions should not be ignored. Moreover, the dual attributes of the “IndoPacific Strategy”, that is, continuity and variability, are likely to change with the development of the domestic political situation in the US. Therefore, in the long run, based on the USs judgment of Chinas strategic intentions and the evolution of the USs domestic political situation, the evolution of the US AsiaPacific policy in the future is likely to become more systematic and mature.

Key words: Sino-US relations, US Asia-Pacific policy, intention model, power model 

摘要： 与进攻性现实主义强调“国家硬实力”的“实力模型”相比，防御性现实主义的“意图模型”指出，大国决策不仅受到国家硬实力的影响，判断他国战略意图对解释大国决策机制也具有不可忽视的作用，国家硬实力对比和对对方战略意图的识别共同决定了国家的对外政策。从奥巴马的“亚太再平衡”到拜登的“印太战略”，“意图模型”解释了美国亚太政策延续性与演进性，这种政策演进虽受到中美双方实力对比的转变，但美方关于中方战略意图的判断不容忽视。不仅如此，“印太战略”的双重属性，即连续性与变迁性会随着美国国内政局发展而改变。因此，长远来看，基于美方对中方战略意图的判断和美国国内政局的演变，美国未来的亚太政策演进可能更趋系统化与成熟化。

关键词: 中美关系, 美国亚太政策, 意图模型, 实力模型