关键词: 中美关系, 美国亚太政策, 意图模型, 实力模型

Abstract: Compared with the “power model” of offensive realism, which emphasizes “national hard power”, the “intention model” of defensive realism argues that the decision making of a great power is not only affected by the countrys hard power, but also by nonmaterial factors, namely, the judgment of the strategic intentions of other countries, which plays an important role in explaining the decisionmaking mechanism of the great power. It is the comparison of national hard power and the identification of the othersstrategic intentions that jointly determine a countrys foreign policy. From the “AsiaPacific Rebalancing” during the Obama presidency to the “IndoPacific Strategy” of the Biden administration, the “intention model” explains the continuity and evolution of the US AsiaPacific policy. Although the evolution of this policy is subject to the transformation of the power shift between China and the US, the USs identification and judgment of Chinas strategic intentions should not be ignored. Moreover, the dual attributes of the “IndoPacific Strategy”, that is, continuity and variability, are likely to change with the development of the domestic political situation in the US. Therefore, in the long run, based on the USs judgment of Chinas strategic intentions and the evolution of the USs domestic political situation, the evolution of the US AsiaPacific policy in the future is likely to become more systematic and mature.

Key words: Sino-US relations, US Asia-Pacific policy, intention model, power model