关键词: 偶然性, 必然性, 《路易·波拿巴的雾月十八日》, 唯物史观

Abstract: Contingency evolves from daily discourse to philosophical discourse, and later evolves into an important category in the conception of history. The turning point of its development lies in the birth of Marxism. On the basis of a scientific understanding of the nature of human beings and their practical activities, Marx provides a scientific paradigm and path for correctly understanding the role of contingency in historical development, and his idea of contingency also presents itself as a process of gradual maturity of development. The Eighteenth Brumaire of Louis Bonaparte is a classic work of Marx‘s idea on contingency, which, based on the dialectical unity of contingency and inevitability, systematically discusses the impact of contingency on historical development in three aspects: ideological factors, political factors and personal factors, thereby enriching and improving the basic principles of historical materialism. Revisiting Marxs idea of examining contingency from the dialectical unity of inevitability and contingency is conducive to a correct understanding of the concept of contingency in grasping the general trend of history and to the promotion of social development and progress.

Key words: contingency, inevitability, The Eighteenth Brumaire of Louis Bonaparte, historical materialism