Abstract: The world today is undergoing profound changes unseen in a century.A deep understanding of the profound changes requires exploring the two key issues of “power” and “order”. The emergence of profound changes unseen in a century originates from deepseated changes including fluctuations in world power, and the loosening of international order brought about by fluctuations in world power constitutes a prominent feature of the major changes in a century. The structural changes in world power are the result of the accumulation of various factors, among which internal and external tensions as well as reverse and forward thrusts lead to changes in power structures and dominant values, and transfers of rulemaking power, promoting profound changes in world power and international order. The trend that “the East rises and the West falls” is becoming prominent, while it is still a fact that “the West is strong, and the East is weak”. Internal rifts in Western countries are widening, while emerging countries also lack sufficient cohesion. The strategic competition between China and the US is intensifying, and competition among the great powers is complicated. Multiple regions in the real world overlap, contradict, and intertwine with each other, deducing a complex and diverse but interrelated and constantly changing network of power, order and flow, and presenting a compound situation with hybrid and intertwined realities. Facing the future, the structure of world power will shift from “unilateral” to “multilateral”. The distribution of world power and international order will inevitably see a new pluralistic paradigm. China must find its own position facing the profound changes, accurately identify changes, adeptly respond to them, work to steer them in a favorable direction, and bring to the uncertain world more certainty.

Key words: changes unseen in a century, world power, international order, compound, transformation

摘要： 当今世界正在经历百年未有之大变局，深刻理解和认识大变局需要探寻“权力”和“秩序”两把钥匙。百年未有之大变局的出场源发于包括世界权力波动在内的深层次变革，世界权力波动带来的国际秩序的松动，又构成百年大变局的突出特征。从历时态看，世界权力的结构性变革是诸多因素累积的结果，其中的内外张力、反向拉力、正向推力等导致权力结构变换、主导性价值转变、规则制定权流转，推动世界权力和国际秩序发生深刻变化。从共时态看，“东升西降”愈发明显，但“西强东弱”仍是事实，西方国家内部裂痕有扩大之势，而新兴国家也缺少足够的内聚力，中国与美国的战略性竞争加剧，大国博弈的图景错综复杂，现实世界多个地区相互重叠、相互矛盾、相互交织，演绎出复杂多样但相互关联的、处于不断变化之中的权力、秩序和流动网络，呈现出混合交错的复合型态势。从未来时态看，世界权力将发生从“单边权力结构”向“多边权力结构”的游动转移，世界权力分布和国际秩序景象必然是一个新型的多元世界格局。中国要在大变局中找准自身定位，准确识变、科学应变、主动求变，为不确定的世界注入更多确定性。

关键词: 百年变局, 世界权力, 国际秩序, 复合, 变革