主管：教育部
主办：中国人民大学
ISSN 0257-2826  CN 11-1454/G4
教学与研究

教学与研究 ›› 2026, Vol. 60 ›› Issue (4): 5-19.

• 学习贯彻党的二十届四中全会精神 •    下一篇

宏观经济治理理论的重大创新——深入学习习近平总书记关于预期管理的重要论述

  

  1. 赵峰，晏宇翔，中国人民大学经济学院；周慧珍（通讯作者），南开大学经济学院
  • 出版日期:2026-04-15 发布日期:2026-04-16
  • 作者简介:赵峰，中国人民大学经济学院教授；晏宇翔，中国人民大学经济学院博士研究生（北京 100872）；周慧珍（通讯作者），南开大学经济学院讲师（天津 300071）。

  • 基金资助:
    本文系国家社科基金重点项目“加快形成同新质生产力更相适应的生产关系问题研究” (项目号:24AZD065)、北京市习近平新时代中国特色社会主义思想研究中心重大攻关专项“当代中国马克思主义发展观和生产力理论基础与实践来源研究”(项目号: 25LLMLA001) 的阶段性成果。

A Major Innovation in the Theory of Macroeconomic Governance: Thoroughly Studying General Secretary Xi Jinpings Important Propositions on Expectation Management

  1. Zhao Feng1, Yan Yuxiang1, Zhou Huizhen2 
    (1。School of Economics, Renmin University of China, Beijing 100872, China;
     2。School of Economics, Nankai University, Tianjin 300071, China)

  • Online:2026-04-15 Published:2026-04-16
  • About author:Zhao Feng1, Yan Yuxiang1, Zhou Huizhen2 
    (1.School of Economics, Renmin University of China, Beijing 100872, China;
     2.School of Economics, Nankai University, Tianjin 300071, China)

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摘要： 党的十八大以来，习近平总书记对预期管理进行了系统论述，实现了宏观经济治理理念和方法的重大创新。党的二十届四中全会聚焦构建高水平社会主义市场经济体制，对进一步完善我国宏观经济治理体系、健全预期管理机制作出了重大部署，充分彰显了预期管理在宏观经济治理中的重要性。社会主义市场经济条件下的预期管理既是对资本主义市场经济条件下预期管理的超越，又是对传统社会主义条件下预期管理实践经验的扬弃。文章梳理了习近平总书记关于预期管理的重要论述，阐述了预期管理的丰富内涵及其在宏观经济治理中的重要地位，分析了新发展阶段加强预期管理、提高宏观经济治理效能的内在要求，即必须坚持市场经济导向，以国家中长期战略规划为引导，进一步提升宏观政策协同效应。


关键词: 习近平经济思想, 宏观经济治理, 预期管理

Abstract: Since the 18th National Congress of the Communist Party of China (CPC), General Secretary Xi Jinping has made systematic propositions on expectation management, realizing a major innovation in the concepts and methods of macroeconomic governance. The Fourth Plenary Session of the 20th Central Committee of the CPC focuses on building a highlevel socialist market economic system and has made important arrangements to further improve Chinas macroeconomic governance system and optimize the expectation management mechanism, which fully demonstrates the importance of expectation management in macroeconomic governance. Expectation management under the socialist market economy is both a transcendence of that under the capitalist market economy and a sublation of the practical experience of expectation management under the traditional socialist system. This paper sorts out General Secretary Xi Jinpings important propositions on expectation management, expounds the rich connotation of expectation management and its important position in macroeconomic governance, and analyzes the inherent requirements of strengthening expectation management and improving the efficiency of macroeconomic governance in the new development stage, namely, we must adhere to the market economy orientation, take the national medium and long。term strategic plans as the guide, and further enhance the synergy of macro policies.

Key words: Xi Jinping's economic thought, macroeconomic governance, expectation management